Hop on the Futures Wheel
004 ⎟ The Futurist Edit
Dear Futurist,
I recently had a conversation about the unexpected consequences of change, how small shifts can trigger massive, sometimes unpredictable ripple effects. Take Ozempic, for example: a diabetes drug that unexpectedly reshaped the weight loss industry, sent junk food stocks plummeting, and raised new ethical and societal debates around access, beauty standards, and long-term health impacts.
The question is: could we have seen these ripple effects coming? That’s exactly where foresight comes in. Tools and methodologies don’t just help us envision the future, they help us map out possibilities, see beyond the obvious, and prepare for what’s ahead.
What you’ll find in today’s issue:
The Game: a deep dive into the Futures Wheel, what it is, how it works, and why it’s a game-changer for foresight and strategy.
Step Into the Future: using the Futures Wheel to explore the rise of prescription skincare, a shift that could redefine beauty, from the rise of AI-driven diagnostics to new social behaviours.
Back to the Present: what beauty brands and professionals could do right now to stay ahead of this transformation and shape the future of skincare.
Let’s start!
THE GAME
✦ Today’s tool ✦
One of the most powerful and practical foresight tools is the Futures Wheel, originally developed by futurist Jerome Glenn in 1972. It helps organisations visualise the direct and indirect consequences of a trend, innovation, or disruptive event.
The Futures Wheel is especially useful after horizon scanning: the process of identifying emerging trends, weak signals, and changes on the horizon that could shape the future. Once a potential change is spotted, the Futures Wheel helps explore its short-, medium-, and long-term implications.
✦ How It Works ✦
Despite its name, the Futures Wheel doesn’t actually look like a wheel….it’s more like a mind map. Instead of a simple, circular shape, you get a web of interconnected ideas, where every thought branches into new possibilities, creating ripple effects in all directions.
At its core, this tool is a structured brainstorming exercise that helps map out first-, second-, and third-order effects of a change, revealing both the obvious impacts and the unexpected shifts that could shape the future. But to fully capture who is affected and how, it’s essential to view the change from multiple stakeholder perspectives, since the same trend can disrupt businesses, challenge policymakers, shift consumer behaviour, and redefine industry standards all at once.
Here are the steps to follow:
➡︎ Start with a central change: identify a key trend, event, or disruption and place it in the center.
➡︎ Define stakeholder perspectives: consider how different players in the system (businesses, regulators, consumers, industry experts, tech innovators,…) experience the change differently. You can even assign roles to each participant of the session.
➡︎ Generate first-order implications: what are the direct consequences for each stakeholder group? For example, how does a new beauty innovation impact brands, dermatologists, and policymakers differently?
➡︎ Expand to second-order implications: how do these initial effects trigger wider ripple effects? A regulatory shift might cause legal battles, while consumer trends could pressure brands to innovate faster.
➡︎ Go deeper with third-order implications: what are the long-term, indirect consequences that could reshape the industry landscape?
➡︎ Analyze and prioritize: evaluate each implication based on desirability (positive or negative) and likelihood (high or low probability).
✦ Why It Matters ✦
For businesses, beauty brands, and innovators, the Futures Wheel is a powerful decision-making tool that:
Reduces blind spots: helps anticipate unintended consequences before they happen.
Identifies risks and opportunities: reveals areas for innovation, disruption, and competitive advantage.
Supports long-term strategy: encourages proactive planning instead of reactive problem-solving.
Enhances collaboration: works as a dynamic group exercise to stimulate creative thinking and strategic insight.
✦ Let’s Play ✦
Now, we’ll put this tool to work by exploring the rise of prescription skincare and mapping its implications.
»»» Premice: The beauty industry is entering a new era, one where personalised, prescription-based skincare slowly replaces mass-market products. Advances in longevity science and epigenetic makes it possible to customise skincare at the cellular level, targeting the root causes of aging instead of just treating surface symptoms. But what happens when skincare shifts from cosmetics to medical-grade interventions? How will consumers, brands, and other industries adapt?
STEP INTO THE FUTURE
Below is a Futures Wheel, that explore some of the implications of a world where beauty is no longer about choosing a cream off the shelf but getting a medically-prescribed, biologically tailored formula.
To bring the graph to life, here’s a detailed breakdown of each effect, so you can see how this future unfolds: