Through the Cone's Lens
003 ⎟ The Futurist Edit
Dear Futurist,
Let me start with a question: are you more of a utopian or dystopian thinker? I like to think I’m an optimist, but I tend to lean toward dystopian scenarios…not because I believe they’re inevitable, but because, I feel, they’re a stronger motivator for action. It’s easy to get lost in a perfect future and assume human progress will get us there, but it’s when we imagine what could go wrong that we truly start thinking about how to steer the wheel in the "right" direction.
That’s why this week, we’re diving into the Cone of Possibilities, a foresight tool that helps us explore the full spectrum of the future. Not just what’s likely, but what’s possible, preferable, and radically unexpected. And to make it more tangible, we’ll apply it to the beauty industry.
What you will find inside today’s issue:
The Game: Learn how the Cone of Possibilities helps us map out the future, challenge assumptions, and make smarter decisions today.
Step Into the Future: Explore two future scenarios, one where beauty has fully embraced sustainability, and another where AI-controlled energy rationing forces the industry into survival mode.
Back to the Present: Discover ideas to help you prepare for uncertainty, build resilience, and ensure you’re equipped to thrive, no matter what disruptions lie ahead.
THE GAME
✦ Today’s tool ✦
The future isn’t a linear path. It expands outward, shaped by our choices, innovations, and surprises along the way creating not one but many possible futures. That’s where the Cone of Possibilities framework comes in handy. Think of it as a way to map out the future, not to predict it with certainty, but to explore different directions it could take.
Originally introduced by Charles Taylor in the 1990s and later refined in futures studies, the Cone is used by foresight experts, strategic planners, and innovators to visualize uncertainty. The core idea? The further into the future we go, the wider the range of potential outcomes, some expected, some surprising, and some entirely transformative.
✦ How It Works ✦
The Cone of Possibilities starts from today, where we have a clear grasp of reality. As time moves forward, the Cone widens, representing an increasing number of future scenarios. These scenarios are built by analyzing current trends, emerging technologies, and societal shifts to identify various potential outcomes. These possibilities are grouped into categories based on their likelihood, impact, and how they challenge our assumptions:
🔵 Probable Future (What’s Most Likely)
If we follow current trends and continue on a predictable trajectory, this is where we’re headed. Think of it as business as usual, unless something major shifts.
💚 Preferable Future (What We Hope For)
This is the future we want to create. It aligns with our values, aspirations, and strategic goals. It’s not guaranteed, we have to take action to shape it.
🟡 Plausible Futures (What Could Happen)
A broad range of realistic possibilities based on known trends, tech advancements, and socio-economic shifts. Some are more optimistic, others more challenging (think utopia to distopia).
🔴 Wild Card Futures (What If…?)
These are the unexpected disruptions: breakthroughs, crises, or paradigm shifts that could change everything. Think of AI gaining sentience overnight or a sudden breakthrough in human longevity.
✦ Why It Matters ✦
This foresight tool can help us navigate uncertainty and make smarter decisions by:
Challenging Assumptions: instead of being blindsided by change, the cone allows to explore multiple possible futures and stay adaptable.
Sparking Innovation: thinking through different scenarios can lead to fresh ideas and creative breakthroughs.
Allowing Strategic Decision-Making: businesses and individuals can prepare for a range of outcomes instead of betting on just one.
Shaping the Future: the future isn’t just something that happens, it’s something we can actively build. The Cone helps in moving toward our preferable outcomes.
✦ Let’s Play ✦
Now, let’s apply the Cone of Possibilities to the future of beauty, focusing specifically on sustainability. In the next section, we’ll explore two stories:
One of a preferable future: a world where beauty is fully aligned with ethical, sustainable, and circular principles.
One of a wild card future: a radical, unexpected shift transforms the industry in an unforeseen way.
STEP INTO THE FUTURE
Let’s start with a story where society has fully achieved its sustainability goals. In this world, beauty and the environment coexist in harmony, with zero waste and complete regeneration.